It has taken me quite a long time to be able to write about the massacre that we suffered in Perth. I have been hibernating for the last week, unable to step outside in the Australian sun for fear of taunts that seemed unimaginable a few days earlier. Horrible flashbacks of 2006/07 were flooding my brain. My bold 4-0 prediction was nested comfortably at the bottom of the bin and my confidence that England could soon be a dominant force in world cricket had been shattered.
I have however found some solace in the knowledge that because of Australia's remarkable turnaround this Boxing Day Test promises to be one of the best in living memory. There is a good chance there will be a record Boxing Day crowd. I'm sure the cricket will be exhilarating, such is the high stakes nature of the contest. As for the atmosphere, well, I can only imagine. As I eluded to earlier, I have already booked my place at the MCG. It will be an incredible experience (one you can read about after the first day's play).
Australia come into this Test with all the momentum after their crushing victory at the WACA. But is this a good thing? Recent Ashes history suggests the team with momentum is the team in trouble (think Ashes 2009, when results swung all over the place). For the optimistic England fan, this spells doom for Australia. In reality, it probably doesn't. The MCG pitch should be quite placid. Bowlers will have to work hard to take their wickets (as evidenced in the recent tour game there). It should be quite an attritional game of cricket which should last 5 days and could quite possibly end in a draw (a tense Cardiff-esque finish could well be on the cards).
Australia should be unchanged coming into this Test. The only doubt is whether captain Ricky Ponting will recover from a broken finger in time for the game (it looks likely he will). The rest of their side is settled although there are still some doubts over the batting. If Michael Hussey finally fails then Australia will struggle to find someone to replace his runs. After their terrific performance in Perth, the bowlers will be full of confidence. I personally have doubts over their lack of a specialist spinner (Steven Smith did not bowl a single over in Perth, although he was far from being required). It should be different in Melbourne however, spinners should come into play in the latter stages and if the pacers are struggling then so will Australia.
England are becoming less settled with every day that passes. There are doubts over their team with rumours circulating that Steven Finn will be rested. It seems unthinkable that the leading wicket-taker in the series could be rested but Finn did look terribly out of sorts in Perth. He went at 5 an over and did not look very threatening. I would imagine Tim Bresnan would come into the side at Finn's expense. The England management seem to value his skill and nous on placid pitches, not to mention his batting ability in the lower order. There have also been some suggestions that Paul Collingwood's place is under threat but I would be shocked if he were jettisoned from the side. He has had a tough year but you can never count him out. He always seems to save his finest for when his back is to the wall so I would keep him in the side for the rest of the series.
England had a bad game in Perth but this is a different England side to the ones that have toured Australia in recent years. They are a strong, confident and cohesive unit and will look to bounce back strongly in Melbourne. Their confidence will not have been shot and do not be surprised to see another dominant England performance, especially if Mitchell Johnson cannot continue to swing the ball like he did at the WACA.
I don't think I have ever spent Christmas Day looking forward to Boxing Day but I think this year will be a first. My Christmas has been totally overshadowed by the excitement of the MCG Test. Now I'm just hoping my New Year will be overshadowed by celebrating the retention of the Ashes.
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