As these two sides came into the series it was widely considered that they were very equally matched. This has not proved to be the case. For the last 7 days, England have totally dominated Australia. On paper the teams still look quite close but on form, they could not be further apart. Most of England's players have hit form at just the right time, most notably Cook and Pietersen. Whilst almost all of the Australians seem totally out of nick, with the exception of Mike Hussey who is enjoying a spectacular renaissance.
At the moment, Australia have an uncanny resemblance to an England side from the 1990's. They have just been dominated by their oldest rival, they have no-one who comes close to matching the spin king who has just bowled them to defeat and they are ringing the changes to an unsettled side. Eerily familiar isn't it?
As much as Australia will want to resist the temptation to make further changes, I cannot see any other option. There are so many misfiring players in their line-up. There is one change that they have no choice but to make and unfortunately for Australia it is one of the players who they would have least liked to have dropped. Simon Katich will not be taking any further part in this Ashes series after damaging his achilles tendon. There is not too much debate about his replacement, Phillip Hughes is the man in waiting for the openers slot so it would be a great surprise if he missed out.
Whilst that selection is relatively straightforward, there are a host of other problems that are not quite so simple. First of all, the No.6 slot, currently occupied by Marcus North. He has been in poor form all series and has not looked like making runs. Even more worryingly, he looks completely at sea against Graeme Swann. He wouldn't be much use when chasing down a total on the last day then, as Swann would most likely be sending down nearly half the overs. In my opinion he has to go. I would be choosing between Khawaja, Ferguson and Steve Smith to fill the vacancy. Smith would be my ideal choice but I think that might make the batting order look a little too weak. I think it would come down to a bat off in the state games between Khawaja and Ferguson for the slot.
OK one down, a few more to go. Doug Bollinger did not look fully fit during this Test, his pace dropped dramatically towards the end and thus carried far less of a threat. Unless he can prove to the selectors otherwise I think this might see him omitted from the side. Since I thought Ben Hilfenhaus was unfairly treated in the first place by his omission from the Adelaide XI, he would be my pick to come in. He has been one of Australia's best bowlers over the past year and more than deserves his place in the side. Another thing that may well be a factor in the selectors minds are the foot holes created by Bollinger during the Test. These foot holes were a perfect target area for Swann against the right handers and significantly increased his threat (they were certainly a factor in Michael Clarke's dismissal). Since Swann is a key weapon for England, Australia will want to reduce his threat as much as possible and dropping Bollinger may well be a way of doing that.
Australia are not only having problem's with England's spinner but also their own. Xavier Doherty has been as ineffective as it is possible to be in his first two Test matches, it is a sign of how badly Australia have struggled that he is their second highest wicket taker (after Siddle with the 6 he took in his first innings, since then he has gone wicketless). Even though the selectors may not admit it, Doherty's selection was mainly an attempt to shackle Pietersen. It failed, spectacularly (I don't think his eventual dismissal after plundering 227 really counts as a win for Doherty). There is no way he can be selected again. The only two contenders for the slot are Steve Smith and the recently jettisoned Nathan Hauritz. If Smith came in for North then Hauritz could also play in a twin-spin attack, but this is highly unlikely.
Both spinners have different selling points. The main thing going for Smith is his batting. If he were selected, he would make the batting significantly stronger at No.8. I'm sure this would appeal to the selectors after the batting performances in Adelaide. However there are severe question marks over his credentials as a bowler. Ian Bell took him apart in the 'A' game at Hobart and he will probably bowl a loose ball an over. Australia cannot afford their spinner to leak runs as it takes all the pressure off the batsmen. Warne has publicly backed Smith but that may not be enough to get him the spot.
Hauritz seems like the more likely option. He has a good record in Australia and performed well against England in the 2009 Ashes. He has also hit form recently with a 5 wicket haul for New South Wales. The only thing in his way is the stubbornness of the selectors, it would not reflect well on them that Hauritz was dropped then re-called just two Tests later. This is definitely the best way to go for Australia as Hauritz would offer good control if not a wicket taking threat. This would allow the seamers to rotate from the other end with some pressure on the batsmen. Will the selectors suck it up and admit they were wrong? Time will tell.
With a lot of uncertainties hanging around, what is for sure is that the Australian camp has problems and they aren't going away in a hurry. Not even a flurry of changes will change that.
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